Figure 1 shows what the number of Twitter followers was for each of the federal party leaders at about noon on August 13th, 2015. Harper leads the pack at 866,000 followers followed by Trudeau at 711,000. Surprisingly, third place is held not by Mulcair, but May with 168,000 followers. Mulcair comes next with 156,000 and then Duceppe with 8,6100.
Figure 2 takes these numbers and constructs a percentage distribution of these Twitter followers. Harper has 44% followed by Trudeau at 36% and then Mulcair and May have about 8% each (due to rounding) with Duceppe last at 4%.
Canada's federal parties had slowed release of new political ads, both from party accounts. Twitter and Facebook numbers indicated in thousands. Numbers accurate as of Sept 1. Twitter numbers are totals for both French and English accounts(where applicable).
An analysis finds Stephen Harper's most engaging tweets have been around events such as the 2014 Winter Olympics, the 2014 Parliament Hill shooting and when he met an overall-clad Justin Bieber in 2012. Not one of Mr. Harper's top 50 tweets is a campaign tweet, according to social marketing analysts kclear.com.
Conservatives have provided some social media #fails for fodder. From a humorous slipup on salmon to a Netflix meme, they've delivered on material. One of these possible missteps was the Conservatives' use of paid Instagram advertising. In fact, they were the first party to test out a sponsored ad: in this case, a photo of Harper holding a baby.
According to Forum Research, it was likely not the right choice for a Conservative newsfeed gamble. User comments ranged from general upset to expletive-filled. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is ahead of the other leaders on Instagram with nearly 12,000 followers on the picture-sharing social media website.
The Conservatives
The Liberals
A content analysis shows that Trudeau and the Liberals are betting on likability as a key driver in his electability. Though Trudeau has sometimes posted about policies such as his proposed approach to economic stimulus, his more frequent messages posted about policies such as his proposed approach to economic stimulus, his more frequent messages have an emotional or values-based bent to them.
He uses words like "movement" and "inclusivity." He speaks to who he will "stand with" and of "building something together with Canadians." And he asks Canadians if they will "make history" by standing with him. This is good social strategy -- it helps to create clear rallying point pionts for voters to gather around.
While the progression of inspirational manifestos may be compelling to some, sometimes the messaging gets lost in rhetoric.
For example, the Liberals used the hashtag #Generation Trudeau. It appeared intended as a sub-campaign focused on university campuses and youth voters, though this is not entirely clear. Interestingly, this hashtag has generated a bit of a backlash, even among Liberal supporters. The use of one's own name for self-promotion seems self-aggrandizing, especially in the context of laying claim to an entire generation.
The NDP
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair plays street hockey in Facebook post timed to his announcement of a fund to support kids in sports.
The NDP don't shy away from takedowns, such as the anti-Trudeau budget "flip-flop" video for #NDPTruth Team, but also proactively champion issues such as that of missing and murdered indigenous women. This approach makes Mulcair and the NDP a bit tougher to pin down. It may make them less socially engaging and therefore less socially contagious than their competitors, a fact that may be reflected in their numbers. Although the NDP leads in the polls and their social numbers are growing, they still trail, with Facebook and Twitter numbers around a third of those of their competitors.
This leanness is like due in part to Mulcair not getting as much attention until later in the election game, but is also likely not helped by the lack of a clear digital persona. Notably, Tom Mulcair's primary hashtag is #ReadyForChange while Justin Trudeau's is #RealChange, a closeness in positioning that helps neither party or personality. The NDP also focus on bilingualism; posts are almost always bilingual or double posted (one in English is followed by French, or vice versa).
There is an adage in advertising: consumers buy emotionally, and then justify their decisions rationally. Before they buy the NDP, at least on social media, they may need more of that emotion -- and more consistently.
Impact
#TrudeauMania hits Twitter after Liberals win 2015 election
A Liberal majority was declared in the 2015 federal election Monday night, as Justin Trudeau's party went from a distant third in the polls to sweeping Atlantic Canada, much of Quebec, the urban centres of Ontario and even spots in Alberta's Conservative strongholds. A Trudeau win at the polls also meant a Trudeau win on Twitter, with #TrudeauMania trending for much of the night.
Pre and During Election eValue Rankings for the Prime Minister Candidates on Facebook and Twitter
"Social media played an integral role in the 2015 Canadian Federal Elections. Voters were using their social media channels to share their real-time thoughts and probe candidates on major topics of discussion," said Bryan Segal, CEO at Engagement Labs. "With an active and engaged audience, candidates took advantage of this opportunity by leveraging their social channels to amplify their message and reach among voters."
